If the decision was yours...

[Laci French]

When should we ease the stay at home order?  Are you employed or out of work? 

What would lifting the order look like?

Edited April 15, 2020 by Laci French

[JoDoe27]

1 hour ago, Laci French said:

When should we ease the stay at home order?  Are you employed or out of work? 

What would lifting the order look like?

I’m employed and made it through a round of layoffs going on at this very moment. I also have other means of income so my position And view is heavily skewed. I can say we should wait it out a little longer because I’m doing ok; however, it would be nice to get back to some semblance of normalcy because I know people are in fact struggling. I can say wait it out because I’m speaking from a place of privilege. 
 

The biggest problem I see in lifting the ban is there hasn’t been anything said or put in place if someone gets seriously sick. Companies aren’t being told to provide additional and adequate paid sick leave. “if you’re sick stay home” literally isn’t an option for a lot of people.  Insurance companies aren’t giving passes should you wind up in the hospital or need any other specialized care. There’s zero for lost wages or automatic life insurance policies should the worst happen. Households can also be mixed with a combination of healthy and vulnerable people. What do we do for them?  Additionally the argument that since I’m young and healthy so maybe won’t suffer too bad doesn’t hold weight. I’m not trying to be the odd man out. Nor do I want me friends to be that person either. 
 

In short it’s a mess that’s going to require some forward thinking that changes the status quo. 

[JoDoe27]

Too late to edit my post; I said June. 

[Strange_Ice]

In honesty if it were up to me I would say lock everything down basically to the point of house arrest for everyone except medical/emergency personnel for 2 full weeks. But that would only be possible in a perfect world that does not exist because bills must be paid and a lot of people would lose a lot if that happened without full govt. Interference to exempt all bills for everyone. 

[ilovewomen]

I am looking at this from an economic standpoint as well as a health issue.

Most of us have had or followed stay at home procedures for about 3 weeks, maybe longer.

During this time, most retail businesses and some manufacturing have shut down, leaving millions of people out of work and with no income.  One example is the airline industry.  Air travel is down 96% from last year at this time. Car sales are virtually non-existent....although I have seen a couple of vehicles with temporary stickers that expire June 9th.  So these were recent car purchases.  Entertainment is shutdown.  Most restaurants are doing maybe 5% of their usual business with the exception of fast food restaurants.

Do you want to buy a house or refinance your mortgage to take advantage of the low interest rates, you better have a credit rating of 800 or forget it.

Gas prices are at low that we have not seen in decades. Production will decrease in the gas and oil industry and people will be laid off.

Many businesses have been forced to close their doors forever.  They cannot sustain and weather the losses they are seeing by the shutdown. This means that when the shutdown ends, many people will no longer have a job to return to.

The longer the shutdown lasts, the more businesses that will close forever, leaving people without a job.

The economic loss impact that we are going to to see if the stay at home orders are lifted at the end of April is going to be staggering. Unemployment is going to be at least 10%.  This is going to be a worldwide problem, not just the United States.

The IMF says that global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020.  The "Great Lockdown" recession as the IMF calls it will be the worst since the great depression.  What happened in 2008-2010 will be a blip compared to this.

This is where we are at today.

If the shut down lasts until June, unemployment is going to be even higher. July, August...holy shit. How about through the end of the year?

We can get back to business now if we do it smartly, and we know how to that. 

Let's all hope that we start getting back to business, lift the lockdown by the end of April.

[Happymon]

The lockdown is frought with more problems than I have patience or capacity to elaborate in a post. Also, this decision is so far above my pay grade, I hesitate to even ponder it. That said,  I think many are familiar with the lockdowns' first problem : it doesn't really solve spread, it slows it. Common sense says it also saves lives by not overwhelming medical capacity. However, given a whole bunch a bad science, rediculous computer modeling  and panic, we'll really never know. Unfortunately,  Corona virus, contrary to some hopes, will not burn itself out. In the long run, the benefits the lockdown buys us are relatively insignificant when compared to the destructive potential of an extended economic shutdown. This is in addition to the damage done to us as a society by petty tyrants who emerge, but I digress. This is not to minimize that thankfully, we do know more about the virus than we did a month ago. And yes, there have been some miraculous saves which I hope will continue. But, will there be widely available, convenient and cost effective individual virus screening, reliable immunity testing or vaccine in two months?  Three? Twelve?  Doubtful. What I have steadfastly maintained throughout is " I hope to god the patient survives this treatment,"  because many are already ruined and in three more months, the damage will be incalculable. I'm prepared to live in a world filled with risks. I do it every day. Given what I know today, I'll continue to be very cautious going forward. I'll wash my hands, try not to chew my cuticles and minimize crowds. There is likely no getting out of this without paying a heavy price. Rhetorically speaking,  what's your price? 

[JoDoe27]

29 minutes ago, ilovewomen said:

We can get back to business now if we do it smartly, and we know how to that. 

How is that? I’m not looking for an argument. I’m genuinely curious as to how we get back to business. I just took a pay cut so yeah, getting back to business would be very beneficial to me.

[Bit Banger]

ILW: “Gas prices are at low that we have not seen in decades. Production will decrease in the gas and oil industry and people will be laid off.”

I saw $1.45/gal the other day.  I don’t remember prices that low since the 70s.  Not sustainable!  But that is more related to the Saudi/Russia conflict in OPEC, than Covid-19.

———

To the OP’s question, my basic needs are covered by SSI.  My play money (ladies, travel, other hobbies) comes from the market where I took a 25% hit.  That may take years to recover if they screwup the release. (We’re planning a “release party” when we’re let loose.)

I think the lockdown has given us some breathing room, time to get PPE materials in the pipeline, a start on treatment/vaccine research, and not overwhelm our existing medical facilities.  With that in place it’s probably time to let some of the pressure off.  If you’re young & healthy, return to work with some social distancing guidelines in place (no large groups, no hand shakes/hugs, masks, etc.).  Industry needs to be brutal about “If you’re sick, STAY HOME.”  If you’re one of the vulnerable(me) stay home for a while yet.  
As someone said, pump the brakes.  Let things return gradually.  I don’t expect schools to open until next fall.  Restaurants with 1/2 their normal tables & slightly higher prices.  Stores for non-essentials will take a while longer to open as people clear back bills before playtime.  Some form of herd immunity will start to develop.

Just my $0.02

Edited April 15, 2020 by Bit Banger

[Alex Majors]

Well maybe big business could start testing their employees,  to see if they have had it and recovered. I know they would have to get test kits, but it is somewhere to start. Once enough people get tested and are working, there will be a need for restaurants and bars to take care of them. Air travel for business men . More gasoline for commuting.  Those who are maybe retired or in a high risk category, could stay inside a little longer by choice. 

The thing about  staying shut down long, is business will evolve to work around the issues. At a job site the other day, I saw a vidieo building inspection done. It was only the plumber, but the guy had to do  like a facetime inspection vidieo. I think the inspector was working from his home because of the virus. Without travel time, he can probably do more inspections. So the city might downsize their staff. Other businesses will use technology  to downsize their operations. Maybe more will always work from home. So less building and hiway construction. People without work might never get the same kind of  good paying job back. Or maybe due to age or pre-existing conditions never get a job. So the quicker things start up, the better.

[Bit Banger]

Alex: “The thing about  staying shut down long, is business will evolve to work around the issues.”

Like the $15/hr fast food worker (automated kiosk) I saw a few months ago.

[FuriousWeasel]

They're now looking at food shortages this fall/winter.  They just shut down a chicken plant because they can't get workers, and killed millions of chickens and threw them away.  That's how many meals for people now missing?  Farm workers aren't coming in from Mexico now, vegetables are going to be scarce.

So we have soviet style bread lines to potentially look forward to.  

Next up, how many people are going to be evicted as soon as the moratorium is lifted?  I've heard hundreds of thousands will be.

Quote

Before the virus hit, America’s unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, the lowest in 50 years. Now Goldman Sachs predicts unemployment could spike to 15 percent by midyear. A St. Louis Federal Reserve economist grimly predicts 32 percent unemployment — worse than during the Great Depression.

Job losses cause extreme suffering. Every 1 percent hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides, according to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet.

Those numbers of deaths due to shutting down the economy are possibly going to be higher than the number of deaths due to coronavirus.

 

This has been my issue.  There has been very little balance in what's been going on. Most of the time when someone brings up the economic impact, it's the equivalent of "Won't someone think of the children!!!" and they get screamed and yelled out, vilified for obviously wanting everyone to die.  Believe it or not, it is possible to be concerned with deaths from the virus, the economic impact, and the issues with loss of civil rights and try to find a balance.  There's not much good in being hysterical but only looking at virus part of things and ignoring everything else.  Reasonable people can disagree on just where the lines are drawn, but ignoring the devastation from shutting down everything is not the mark of critical thinking.

 

[Laci French]

Every single one of you has made great points.  We are literally writing history and each day we learn more. 

The impacts of this have and will continue to be devastating for months to come.  

I read that 30% were unable to make rent payment for April.  I shutter to think what will happen if this stretches past May.  

I also find myself weeping over all the lives lost and know that number will continue.

All a very delicate dance with the decision because we have to think about health concerns and also not let this turn into a depression.

God bless all of you❤

[Bravo1]

I'm an essential worker but also have a side business where I have been able to continue working safely.  I think the hold order needs to remain in effect until we are able to get ahead of the results of the virus spreading.  I have no problem just limiting my interactions with people to essential stuff and even then I will take precautions, possibly for months to come. 

 

[scarecrow]

Self Employed.. my business was order to close as most of the business was deemed non-essential to live. I have been open a few hours a week to work within the new laws hoping to make enough to cover some of the business expenses.

I filed for unemployment today.

[scarecrow]

3 hours ago, FuriousWeasel said:

They're now looking at food shortages this fall/winter.  They just shut down a chicken plant because they can't get workers, and killed millions of chickens and threw them away.  That's how many meals for people now missing?  Farm workers aren't coming in from Mexico now, vegetables are going to be scarce.

So we have soviet style bread lines to potentially look forward to.  

Next up, how many people are going to be evicted as soon as the moratorium is lifted?  I've heard hundreds of thousands will be.

Those numbers of deaths due to shutting down the economy are possibly going to be higher than the number of deaths due to coronavirus.

 

This has been my issue.  There has been very little balance in what's been going on. Most of the time when someone brings up the economic impact, it's the equivalent of "Won't someone think of the children!!!" and they get screamed and yelled out, vilified for obviously wanting everyone to die.  Believe it or not, it is possible to be concerned with deaths from the virus, the economic impact, and the issues with loss of civil rights and try to find a balance.  There's not much good in being hysterical but only looking at virus part of things and ignoring everything else.  Reasonable people can disagree on just where the lines are drawn, but ignoring the devastation from shutting down everything is not the mark of critical thinking.

 

Furious Weasel

I agree with you. Check out what is going on here in Michigan. Our governor is destroying our economy. She has gone to far and people are pushing back.

 

[gr8owl]

The question is where is the tipping point?  Was it worth a month shut down to save lives and get our shit together a little better before peak?  Yes, undoubtedly.  Would it likely turn into anarchy for lack or work/money/food/shelter beyond say 6 months?  Yes, I think it could.  The hard truth in my opinion is restrictions need to be loosened significantly in any region where the hospital admission rate has dropped for seven or more consecutive days OR June 1, whichever comes first.  Someone and something has to generate revenue and assets, simple as that.  I fear beyond June we would cause irreparable harm to the country.  Devil's choice, but no worse than the choices if the peak exceeds medical resources and the big choice becomes who gets medical attention and who is simply "made comfortable" (drugged out of mind) and left to die.  It is a shit hand we were dealt and that has been poorly played on top.  Then get the testing for disease and anti-bodies actually available region/nationwide, not let the federal bureaucracy delay vaccine forever, prepare better for the next one that we know is coming, and probably make some major permanent changes relative to international travel, cruise ships, old folks homes and other death traps.

Short answer, when hospital admissions dip for 7 days or June 1, whichever comes first.

[50-DE]

Not to add insult to injury but it doesn't matter to me either way. I'm getting overtime during this whole stay at home order and will still be getting overtime after this order is lifted. Truck Driver.

 

[briscorp1]

I'm guessing things will start to open back up starting May 1. Because the one thing worse than COVID-19 is a completely and irrecoverably trashed economy. And we'll have mandatory face masks in public, and "maximum occupancy" guidelines in places like bars and movie theaters ("three stools/seats between!"). And more people will get sick, and more people will die (though not as many as died last year alone from the flu, or gunshots, or suicide, or pollution, or car accidents, or domestic violence, or drug overdoses, or other causes of death that we've somehow found a way to live with as a part of this absurd stage-play we call life). We'll all wash our hands alot more. Hand sanitizer stock will become Blue Chip. Higher risk businesses like gyms will start taking your temperature at the door....immunity cards will acquire a new cache`...mandatory vaccinations down the road...lol

[johnnybgood]

Well a lot of diff opinions here, all valid I might add, but opening things up has to be done on a case by case basis.  The hardest hit areas should be the last to open, many areas are barely affected such as rural places, smaller towns etc.  Mayor's should be allowed to let businesses open in these areas by May 1st at the latest....

But first and most importantly people with any symptoms need to stay away from others until totally clear.  People will wear masks for some time, majority of people will do a better job of wiping down things they touch beforehand for the foreseeable future.  Life as we knew it is gone, just like after 911.

I don't see a packed Coors Field anytime soon even after they start playing ball, how about a standing room only concert how many of us will pass on that?  We need to get people back to work plain and simple before the aftershocks of the virus become worse than the virus itself!

[Bit Banger]

7 hours ago, gr8owl said:

The question is where is the tipping point?  Was it worth a month shut down to save lives and get our shit together a little better before peak?  Yes, undoubtedly.  Would it likely turn into anarchy for lack or work/money/food/shelter beyond say 6 months?  Yes, I think it could. 

Great questions, gr8owl.
Add how many Constitutional liberties are we willing to sacrifice?  For how long?  I fear that some may be damaged forever and that precedents have been set which threaten others.

Imagine the gnashing of teeth if/when the public finds out the true meaning of triage.  The next shortage would be court facilities as late night TV lawyers crank up their word processors.  Then the medical profession itself.  I remember when the last baby catcher left Cheyenne, chased out by tort & insurance rates.
 

A few weeks ago I asked if,
“the cure (lockdown) would be worse than the disease (Covid-19)?“ We may find out.

 

[ilovewomen]

All good questions and points.  I wish I knew all the answers and could wave a magic wand.  But alas, I am human and as such, I can and will be wrong at times.

We are dealing with a difficult time in our history. We are living history right now that will be taught to future students.

We will get through this.  It may take several months for things to get back to what we were used to.  One thing I am certain of, the longer it takes to open back up and get people back to work, the harder life will be and the longer it will take for something resembling normalcy to be achieved.

 

 

 

[Bit Banger]

Briscorp1:

 "What is sacred? Of what is the spirit made? What is worth living for? What is worth dying for? The answer to each of these is the same: only love." --Don Juan De Marco

——

Loved that movie.  One of Depp’s best.

[BadBoy]

It's actually simple:  We had to shut down for a couple of months because our leaders fucked around for a couple of months without making any preparations for the onslaught of sick people they knew (or would have known if they listened to the WHO, CDC and the intelligence community) were coming.  After a couple of months, when our incompetent leaders are done fucking around and we have the hospital beds ready and the respirators in hand, we will have to open up and let the chips (and bodies) fall where they may.

If we had been ready, we wouldn't have had to shut down at all.

Besides, its only the lower and middle classes that are suffering, which generally is of no consequence to those in charge.

[hornyoldtoad]

i just wish they could figure out the testing component and have everyone tested. 

it seems (to me) that our collective smart people should be able to figure out testing - and then if congress passed a 'test everyone' component in a stimulus bill we would get to the better side of this a whole lot faster...

so much unknown in this 'effort'...

[FuriousWeasel]

Read in the news yesterday that police in England are reporting that the number of domestic violence murders has doubled in the last month.

[pfunk]

17 hours ago, FuriousWeasel said:

Read in the news yesterday that police in England are reporting that the number of domestic violence murders has doubled in the last month.

Yep. They are all the way up to 16. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/15/domestic-abuse-killings-more-than-double-amid-covid-19-lockdown

[Old_Timer]

On 4/16/2020 at 1:17 PM, BadBoy said:

It's actually simple:  We had to shut down for a couple of months because our leaders fucked around for a couple of months without making any preparations for the onslaught of sick people they knew (or would have known if they listened to the WHO, CDC and the intelligence community) were coming.  After a couple of months, when our incompetent leaders are done fucking around and we have the hospital beds ready and the respirators in hand, we will have to open up and let the chips (and bodies) fall where they may.

If we had been ready, we wouldn't have had to shut down at all.

Besides, its only the lower and middle classes that are suffering, which generally is of no consequence to those in charge.

No Bit, we would have had to shut down but we'd be opening again this week, as Korea is. We both got our first cases around the same day -- about two months ago. They took steps immediately, did a lot of testing. Our leader ignored the situation and gave a lot of lip service to testing and ventilators, but was criminally negligent in the performance of his duties as chief executive to protect Americans. If anything should get him impeached, it would be this, but it won't happen. The majority in the Senate is morally bankrupt, so that idiot will stay in the White House no matter how many lives he's destroyed through his petulant incompetence.

Korea has 10,000 cases, and less than 200 deaths. You know how many we have, and it isn't over yet. What is it now, 25,000 - 30,000 new cases a day? Florida is reopening their beaches -- watch that multiply now, and when their hospitals overflow, watch their death rate soar.

The Korea success story is here. I wish they were writing about us, but American voters lost their minds in 2016, and now we're paying the price.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-south-korea-has-done-correctly-in-battling-covid-19

 

 

[Bit Banger]

Old Timer, you quoted BadBoy, but referenced me.

Let’s compare apples & oranges.

S. Korea has a population of about 52 million, or about twice that of the NYC metro area.  It has a population density of about 1,300/sq.mi, about 5% of NYC metro’s 28,000/sq.mi.  It has a strong central government, not  50 different states each with their own Constitutionally protected powers.

Do you remember the holabulu about the great pandemic, bird flu?  Didn’t make much news when it fizzled.  How about SARS?  Pretty much the same deal. MERS? Hmm. Now we get Covid-19.  But Chicken Little has played that tune before.  And just like any great General our leaders fought the last war.  
 

I’m not saying the Trump, or Cuomo, or de Blasio, have done a wonderful job, but they have worked with the resources available to them and w/in their legal constraints.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Bit Banger

[BlueCOSky]

In my experience from 1989 to 1995 in West Africa (Ebola and Lassa virus, Liberia and Nigeria) I can offer the following:

 

I've spent time quarantined with WHO reps in Nigeria. The hotel bar was our meeting place. It's a fine place to exchange information, fear and qualified opinions, believe it or not. The WHO reps have a unique brand of courage and dedication. They are true heroes. 

Politics serve as a distraction to the most expeditious solution to an outbreak. It's always that way. It seems the experts know what to do and they then spend a considerable amount of time getting the resources aligned by desperately pleading to politicians, army personnel and a rainbow of locals with their fingers in the

pie. Medical science and politics really don't coordinate very well. Despite the argument, when things get to the point of body trucks in the morning and dying desperate natives wandering the streets like a zombie apocalypse, the political argument loses and the politicians relent. The medical experts then get the job done.

So now, we see a pandemic in the US with a real potential to kill at an alarming rate. It is senseless to try and rationalize the number of people who may die by comparing death rates to car accidents or a previously experienced flu outbreak. Viruses come in many forms. The one constant is if they are ignored they spread and if the virus is in fact new it takes science and math to measure the potential outcome. Since COVID-19 is a new strain, it is still being measured and the characteristics are being assessed. You will hear a truthful 

"I don't know" from the medical experts more than from any politicians. Then, of course, a virus can mutate. It can become more lethal or less. We don't know. The Spanish flu which killed my grandmother in New York is an example. The second wave was far more deadly. It mutated. The lifted restrictions at the time were for the same political reasons. I doubt anyone would disagree that a second wave could be more disruptive to our economy than we see thus far. The risk may not be worth the money.

There's a post here which mentions South Korea. It's worth noting. I've found South Koreans to be much more compliant as a culture. They do listen to the guidelines put forth and you can see those results clearly.

Our population in the US needs to take a hard look at these facts and demand action from the politicians while only paying attention to the advice of scientists, and perhaps not the scientists employed by politicians. This is the quickest path to the normal lives we all want back.

 

Special thanks to the lady who began this post.

[Kaduk]

5 hours ago, Bit Banger said:

Let’s compare apples & oranges.

Do you remember the holabulu about the great pandemic, bird flu?  Didn’t make much news when it fizzled.  How about SARS?  Pretty much the same deal. MERS? Hmm. Now we get Covid-19.  But Chicken Little has played that tune before.  And just like any great General our leaders fought the last war.  

Laura Ingraham ::“Dr. Fauci, on the question of a vaccine: We don’t have a vaccine for SARS,” she said, adding: “We don’t have a vaccine for HIV. And life did go on, right?”

Fauci::  “Well, no, but Laura, this is different,” he said. “HIV/AIDS is entirely different. We don’t have a vaccine for HIV/AIDS, but we have spectacularly effective treatment. People who invariably would have died years ago right now are leading essentially normal lives. SARS is a different story. SARS disappeared.” “So, I think it’s a little bit misleading, maybe, to compare what we are going through now with HIV or SARS. They’re really different.”

Ingraham suggesting that the virus could soon disappear, like Fauci noted that SARS had. Laura Ingraham:: “This could as well, correct?” she asked.

Fauci::“You know, anything could, Laura. But I have to tell you, the degree of efficiency, of transmissibility of this is really unprecedented in anything that I’ve seen,”  “It’s an extraordinarily efficient virus in transmitting from one person to another. Those kinds of viruses don’t just disappear.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/17/laura-ingraham-fauci-interview/