If the decision was yours...

[Bit Banger]

My comparison to SARS, etc. was for the pre-infection hype, “here comes the next pandemic.“  There is a reason Covid-19 is called a novel coronavirus.  It hasn’t behaved like it’s predecessors.  The point being that it took a while for us (and our leaders) to adapt to this new threat.

[Kaduk]

Senate leaders ---> daily briefings about the threat posed by the novel coronavirus.

On February 7th, senators on the Senate Intelligence Committee receiving daily briefings about the threat posed by the novel coronavirus. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/congress-coronavirus

Timeline:: South Korea and the United States confirm their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day, Jan. 20, 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus

 

[Veronicaturbay]

as much as I would like to "normal"  we have to adjust (just like we did with F&S. life is not gonna be the same for me. Too many lives lost already. 

Safe hugs for everyone.

[Bit Banger]

Saw this the other day. It is one of my concerns.

 

Grrr!  Can’t get picture to post and missed the edit window.

Image was hospital room labeled “Coronavirus Ward.”

Three beds. One had wreath and 30,000+ on the ribbon. The next two had patients on life support.  One labeled “ECONOMY”,  the other “CIVIL LIBERTIES”

[pfunk]

1 hour ago, Bit Banger said:

Grrr!  Can’t get picture to post and missed the edit window.

Image was hospital room labeled “Coronavirus Ward.”

Three beds. One had wreath and 30,000+ on the ribbon. The next two had patients on life support.  One labeled “ECONOMY”,  the other “CIVIL LIBERTIES”

I reaiize everyone is suffering. Closing businesses, and making people stay home seems draconian.

However, this sticks in my mind: 

The economy & civil liberties will be restored, at some point. The dead aren't ever coming back.

 

[Bit Banger]

39 minutes ago, pfunk said:

I reaiize everyone is suffering. Closing businesses, and making people stay home seems draconian.

However, this sticks in my mind: 

The economy & civil liberties will be restored, at some point. The dead aren't ever coming back.

 

I realize that.  While I have lost an acquaintance I have not lost anyone close to me.

Yes, the economy will survive and even flourish when this is over, like it did after 9/11.

But what scares me is the ease with which the sheeple (self included) accepted the curtailment of  civil liberties. What will happen the next time an “emergency” crops up?  Will civil liberties recover, or will they be forever changed as they were after 9/11?  Will we accept the reduction as the ‘new normal’?

One of the things that makes these United States of America unique, that makes us so special and great, is our freedom & civil liberties.  I hope we never lose that!

[Vassago]

On 4/16/2020 at 2:56 PM, FuriousWeasel said:

Read in the news yesterday that police in England are reporting that the number of domestic violence murders has doubled in the last month.

Well, yeah, they're trapped in the house with each other for two months straight and can't get away to the bar. Nobody saw that coming? 

[airamericavet65]

6 minutes ago, Bit Banger said:

I realize that.  While I have lost an acquaintance I have not lost anyone close to me.

Yes, the economy will survive and even flourish when this is over, like it did after 9/11.

But what scares me is the ease with which the sheeple (self included) accepted the curtailment of  civil liberties. What will happen the next time an “emergency” crops up?  Will civil liberties recover, or will they be forever changed as they were after 9/11?  Will we accept the reduction as the ‘new normal’?

One of the things that makes these United States of America unique, that makes us so special and great, is our freedom & civil liberties.  I hope we never lose that!

Right on

[fork]

This talk of "opening back up" seems premature because the number of new cases every day is still bigger now than it was when we started lockdown. So if we pretend things are normal again, we are simply going to start the upward trend again.

There is an alternative - if we had a sophisticated test and contract tracing infrastructure, so that ANYONE could get tested (and in fact EVERYONE was encouraged to) on a regular basis, then we could imagine that new outbreaks could be identified and stamped out quickly. But I don't see anyone building that ... *looks around*

The whole idea of this lockdown is to give our government and health care system time to build out such infrastructure. That, plus the life-saving capacity. I hear a lot about respirators, but I don't see any change in the number of daily tests happening, or anyone being trained to do contact testing. Hopefully I'm wrong and it's happening.

So my assumption is that we will remain in lockdown until people get tired of it (which is starting) at which point we all just go back into the world and start dying. Too bad February was a month squandered, and as far as I can see this time now is being squandered. 

[BBT-8367]

6 hours ago, Bit Banger said:

I realize that.  While I have lost an acquaintance I have not lost anyone close to me.

Yes, the economy will survive and even flourish when this is over, like it did after 9/11.

But what scares me is the ease with which the sheeple (self included) accepted the curtailment of  civil liberties. What will happen the next time an “emergency” crops up?  Will civil liberties recover, or will they be forever changed as they were after 9/11?  Will we accept the reduction as the ‘new normal’?

One of the things that makes these United States of America unique, that makes us so special and great, is our freedom & civil liberties.  I hope we never lose that!

Given that NY has a 7% death of recorded cases and that covid diagnosis rates have been increasing across the country,   I tend to think that agreeing to a lockdown  is a sign of intelligence and is not an indication of being one of the "sheeple."   

 

Also, people may be misusing  the term "civil liberty"  in this thread.

 

According  to the Oxford Dictionary,  Civil Liberties are the state of being subject only to laws established for the good of the community, especially with regard to freedom of action and speech.  (Underlining and  bold added for emphasis.)

 

A rule that restricts freedom that is reasonably designed  and intended  to protect the community is not an infringement upon civil liberties.  This is particularly the case when the rule is temporary and is implemented in an emergency situation.   While you do not temporarily have a right to  public assembly, you do still  have the right to free speech. You can start your own web page, blog, and even post stuff here. and elsewhere.

 

We all want our usual freedoms back and I think we all that we want the Economy to open back up   If we open too early and without the appropriate infrastructure in place, then we run the risk of   greater economic harm than what we're currently facing.  I know that's hard to imagine, but it's a possibility.  Remember that Death Rates go up if hospitals get flooded.  If the hospitals become over burdened, we will be in for another longer, more painful shutdown

 

[BBT-8367]

1 hour ago, fork said:

This talk of "opening back up" seems premature because the number of new cases every day is still bigger now than it was when we started lockdown. So if we pretend things are normal again, we are simply going to start the upward trend again.

There is an alternative - if we had a sophisticated test and contract tracing infrastructure, so that ANYONE could get tested (and in fact EVERYONE was encouraged to) on a regular basis, then we could imagine that new outbreaks could be identified and stamped out quickly. But I don't see anyone building that ... *looks around*

The whole idea of this lockdown is to give our government and health care system time to build out such infrastructure. That, plus the life-saving capacity. I hear a lot about respirators, but I don't see any change in the number of daily tests happening, or anyone being trained to do contact testing. Hopefully I'm wrong and it's happening.

 

Well said. Unfortunately we do not appear to have the testing, tracing and other medical infrastructure in place yet  to deal with a wide opening of the economy.

[Bit Banger]

Without adequate testing we’ll never have a good ‘death rate’ statistic.  A recent CA study showed that the number of infected may be off by as much as 85 times the reported numbers.  This would bring the death rate down to something close to the annual flu.  Do we shut the country down for that?

Edited April 19, 2020 by Bit Banger

[ilovewomen]

It has already been reported 2-3 weeks ago in the media that if a person dies from a heart attack, cancer or something else, if that person was asymptomatic or worse with Covid-19, then the death was being attributed to Covid-19...which inflates the actual count of death from Covid-19.

What gets me is how quickly the media and others started crying “the sky is falling” and we are all going to die, so everyone has to go on a lockdown.

If this virus is so bad, what are we not being told about it?

[fork]

1 minute ago, ilovewomen said:

It has already been reported 2-3 weeks ago in the media that if a person dies from a heart attack, cancer or something else, if that person was asymptomatic or worse with Covid-19, then the death was being attributed to Covid-19...which inflates the actual count of death from Covid-19.

This is a garbage talking point of the "it's all a hoax" crowd. I wouldn't believe it, based on the people spreading this misinformation.

[fork]

1 hour ago, Bit Banger said:

Without adequate testing we’ll never have a good ‘death rate’ statistic.  A recent CA study showed that the number of infected may be off by as much as 85 times the reported numbers.  This would bring the death rate down to something close to the annual flu.  Do we shut the country down for that?

That's the only piece of possible good news out there ... you're right we don't know the real numbers. No one knows. If the virus is more widely spread, and therefore much less deadly, then that changes a lot. I wish we knew.

[BBT-8367]

2 hours ago, Bit Banger said:

2 hours ago, Bit Banger said:

Without adequate testing we’ll never have a good ‘death rate’ statistic.  A recent CA study showed that the number of infected may be off by as much as 85 times the reported numbers.  This would bring the death rate down to something close to the annual flu.  Do we shut the country down for that?

Flu is not a good comparison

COVID-19 is currently the number one cause of death in the U.S and is  killing about 2K americans per day. That's with a lockdown in place.   With no lockdown in place, perhaps Covide-19 deaths would increase 3X to 15X. 

Besides the death rate, you also have to consider the hospitalization rate,   NY was running at 20% recorded cases a month ago.  I don't know what they are at now.   If the hospitals become overburdened, then the medical system for all medical conditions (not just covid-19) deteriorate. 

Flus is seasonal. We a do not know if Covid 19 is seasonal.  If it's not seasonal, 365 x 2K, under lockdown conditions is  . 730k deaths.   That would be more than 10X worse than Flu in any recent year   Without a lockdown,  maybe it's 30x to 150X worse than flu.  We simply do not know what the numbers would be, but we know they are way worse than flu under current conditions.

 

[BBT-8367]

I tried to edit the above to state the following since I think my original estimates are incorrect

 

 

Flu is not a good comparison

COVID-19 is currently the number one cause of death in the U.S and is  killing about 2K americans per day. That's with a lockdown in place.

The current covid run rate of actual deaths is perhaps  6 times greater than the worst recent flu season.  With no lockdown in place, perhaps Covide-19 deaths would increase  3X to 15X, making it 18 to 90 times worse than flu.

Besides the death rate, you also have to consider the hospitalization rate,   NY was running at 20% recorded cases a month ago.  I don't know what they are at now.   If the hospitals become overburdened, then the medical system for all medical conditions (not just covid-19) deteriorate. 

[johnnybgood]

1 hour ago, BBT-8367 said:

I tried to edit the above to state the following since I think my original estimates are incorrect

 

Flu is not a good comparison

COVID-19 is currently the number one cause of death in the U.S and is  killing about 2K americans per day. That's with a lockdown in place.

The current covid run rate of actual deaths is perhaps  6 times greater than the worst recent flu season.  With no lockdown in place, perhaps Covide-19 deaths would increase  3X to 15X, making it 18 to 90 times worse than flu.

Besides the death rate, you also have to consider the hospitalization rate,   NY was running at 20% recorded cases a month ago.  I don't know what they are at now.   If the hospitals become overburdened, then the medical system for all medical conditions (not just covid-19) deteriorate. 

Not trying to minimize this horrible virus, just put some perspective on it, over 1/2 of ALL deaths are the elderly, many with already underlying diseases, heart disease, lung disease, auto immune defficiencies, respiratory problems, etc. Half of the remaining are younger people but also with some of the above health issues!  Can't find it right now but somewhere I read that people who smoke are 80% more likely to die from this bug if they catch it..

Plenty of blame to go around here but bottom line is nobody thought it was as dangerous as it turned out to be...mad woman Pelosi was telling a half dozen cameras on Feb 24th, while walking down the street with her load of followers to come to Chinatown everything is open, see me I'm going to eat right now!  How about the mayor of New York on Mar 2nd urging New Yorkers to get out on the town take in a play or go to the cinema.

This all made it worse!!!  It downplayed the severity for the avg Joe on the street, New York/New Jersey is the epicenter of this with the largest amount of international travelers.  But that is water under the bridge at this point, nothing can be done about it but learn!  As for the 2000 deaths per day that's NOT going to continue, we are at the peak of those now and new cases are going down in the majority of cities across the country.  

There is also some inflated Covid19 #'s out there, deaths that would be reported as flu or pneumonia, heart disease and being lumped into the Covid19 basket.  Why is this happening, political/financial reasons being the most likely culprit!

The sky is not falling, we will move on from this hopefully better prepared for the next big outbreak and I'll bet the next time when they stop airline travel from other countries nobody will be crying about the inconvenience of it.

That's my 4 cents...🤣

[FuriousWeasel]

Here's a great quote from some I read that explains what a lot of people are missing:

Quote

C'mon, people. After several weeks of this, how are we still struggling with understanding what "flatten the curve" means?

Too many people seem to think the quarantine is about saving lives or staying healthy. It isn't. Not really. It's about lengthening the period of time it takes for the infection to run through all of us. It's about keeping hospitals from being overrun with too many patients at once, not about keeping you uninfected. In other words, we are attempting to avoid a logjam. That's it. It's like the traffic lights that keep too many cars from flowing onto the freeway at one time. You're still going to ride the freeway... you just have to wait your turn.

The virus will infect a certain number of us in this country, and a certain number of us WILL die. Maybe it's 60,000 or maybe it's 200,000 or maybe it's 1,000,000. Without a vaccine or at least a successful treatment, we aren't going to change that! All the social distancing does is slow down the rate of the infection so that at any given moment we have enough beds for the critical cases.

That's what "flatten the curve" means. Do you understand the difference? It doesn't seem like you do, because I keep hearing you say things like, "We must stay in until this is gone." It's not going to be "gone." We are only going to keep hospitals from being overrun all at once.

And in that sense, some lives will be saved (because the equipment and staff will theoretically be available to help.) ... Which, incidentally, we have successfully achieved. The numbers are WAY below the projections.

 

[ilovewomen]

10 hours ago, fork said:

This is a garbage talking point of the "it's all a hoax" crowd. I wouldn't believe it, based on the people spreading this misinformation.

You can say it's a garbage talking point, but the supposed experts out there have stated this.

I'm not saying this is a hoax.  What i will say is that in my opinion, we have over reacted and this lockdown will be felt financially for years to come.

[Bit Banger]

FuriousWeasel:

That is a wonderful explanation of the reasons for the current lockdown and what ‘flatten the curve’ means.  We’ve slowed the onset giving time to gather  critic and start research on vaccine/cure.  But the lockdown is not sustainable!  Eventually we need to open the flood gates and let some folks loose.  Will they become infected? Some.  Will some die? Definitely. Does that mean we should all retreat back to our caves? No!

[Bit Banger]

17 minutes ago, Bit Banger said:

.  We’ve slowed the onset giving time to gather  critic and start research on vaccine/cure. 

Oops!  Damn autocorrect changing things behind me.
That should read “... gather critical resources ...”

[Kaduk]

13 hours ago, Bit Banger said:

Without adequate testing we’ll never have a good ‘death rate’ statistic.  A recent CA study showed that the number of infected may be off by as much as 85 times the reported numbers.  This would bring the death rate down to something close to the annual flu.  Do we shut the country down for that?

Ingraham suggesting that the virus could soon disappear, like Fauci noted that SARS had. Laura Ingraham:: “This could as well, correct?” she asked.

Fauci::“You know, anything could, Laura. But I have to tell you, the degree of efficiency, of transmissibility of this is really unprecedented in anything that I’ve seen,”  “It’s an extraordinarily efficient virus in transmitting from one person to another. Those kinds of viruses don’t just disappear.”

 

[BBT-8367]

6 hours ago, FuriousWeasel said:

Here's a great quote from some I read that explains what a lot of people are missing:

 

I agree with everything in the quote

[BBT-8367]

12 hours ago, johnnybgood said:

Not trying to minimize this horrible virus, just put some perspective on it, over 1/2 of ALL deaths are the elderly, many with already underlying diseases, heart disease, lung disease, auto immune defficiencies, respiratory problems, etc. Half of the remaining are younger people but also with some of the above health issues!  Can't find it right now but somewhere I read that people who smoke are 80% more likely to die from this bug if they catch it..

Plenty of blame to go around here but bottom line is nobody thought it was as dangerous as it turned out to be...mad woman Pelosi was telling a half dozen cameras on Feb 24th, while walking down the street with her load of followers to come to Chinatown everything is open, see me I'm going to eat right now!  How about the mayor of New York on Mar 2nd urging New Yorkers to get out on the town take in a play or go to the cinema.

This all made it worse!!!  It downplayed the severity for the avg Joe on the street, New York/New Jersey is the epicenter of this with the largest amount of international travelers.  But that is water under the bridge at this point, nothing can be done about it but learn!  As for the 2000 deaths per day that's NOT going to continue, we are at the peak of those now and new cases are going down in the majority of cities across the country.  

There is also some inflated Covid19 #'s out there, deaths that would be reported as flu or pneumonia, heart disease and being lumped into the Covid19 basket.  Why is this happening, political/financial reasons being the most likely culprit!

The sky is not falling, we will move on from this hopefully better prepared for the next big outbreak and I'll bet the next time when they stop airline travel from other countries nobody will be crying about the inconvenience of it.

That's my 4 cents...🤣

Everything above is likely correct.   There is one additional risk category for serious complications or death that is worth mentioning: obesity.  Unfortunately,  up to 40% of all American adults fall into that risk profile. 

One strategy might be to  open up the economy  now for those that have all of the following characteristics:

1. Under 60

2. No underlying health conditions

3. Not obese

4. Has not smoked in the past several years

5. Has regularly performed aerobic exercise over the past four months (can demonstrate above average lung capacity).  (This appears to lower the risk of serious complications)

6. Only lives with people that have all of the above traits

These people will not likely clog up hospitals.  Unfortunately, they likely represent a small part of the population.  Nevertheless, If that works, then we can start to gradually loosen up criteria to the extent that hospitals have the capacity for those that need it.

In areas where the virus is not prevalent at all, perhaps none of the above restrictions would be needed,.  Perhaps all that may be needed in those areas are common sense distancing guidelines when out in public.

 

[Old_Timer]

On 4/18/2020 at 11:15 AM, Bit Banger said:

Saw this the other day. It is one of my concerns.

 

Grrr!  Can’t get picture to post and missed the edit window.

Image was hospital room labeled “Coronavirus Ward.”

Three beds. One had wreath and 30,000+ on the ribbon. The next two had patients on life support.  One labeled “ECONOMY”,  the other “CIVIL LIBERTIES”

Great cartoon. Where did you find it?

I'd add third bed and wreath: 2020 Presidential Election

 

[Old_Timer]

2 hours ago, BBT-8367 said:

Everything above is likely correct.   There is one additional risk category for serious complications or death that is worth mentioning: obesity.  Unfortunately,  up to 40% of all American adults fall into that risk profile. 

One strategy might be to  open up the economy  now for those that have all of the following characteristics:

1. Under 60

2. No underlying health conditions

3. Not obese

4. Has not smoked in the past several years

5. Has regularly performed aerobic exercise over the past four months (can demonstrate above average lung capacity).  (This appears to lower the risk of serious complications)

6. Only lives with people that have all of the above traits

These people will not likely clog up hospitals.  Unfortunately, they likely represent a small part of the population.  Nevertheless, If that works, then we can start to gradually loosen up criteria to the extent that hospitals have the capacity for those that need it.

In areas where the virus is not prevalent at all, perhaps none of the above restrictions would be needed,.  Perhaps all that may be needed in those areas are common sense distancing guidelines when out in public.

 

All we need is a cheap (accurate) antibody test.

Pass the test, go to work.

Fail the test, goto self imposed 2-week quarantine.

[JRWolfe]

On 4/15/2020 at 1:04 PM, Laci French said:

When should we ease the stay at home order? 

   When there is a vaccine.  

[pfunk]

56 minutes ago, JRWolfe said:

   When there is a vaccine.  

Do you really believe we should keep the country, as it currently functions, for 18 to 24 months? 

[Laci French]

Keeping the stay at home order in place for 12-18 months would lead to a complete economic collapse.

IMO the lives lost by that could far exceed the virus.

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Laci French